Review of Seymour Hersh's LRB Piece

If this is your first time here, I recommend starting from the conclusion page.

The London Review of Books published today a long piece by Seymour Hersh analyzing the intelligence surrounding the August 21st attack. In this post I'll review the main points raised in the article.

Sensors around chemical weapons sites were not triggered prior to the attack
The article doesn't provide any firm evidence that supports this, but it does provide some circumstantial evidence (when they were triggered in December Obama issued a warning, while no such warning was issued in August), and it's reasonable to assume such an early warning system exists.
Since we already know the sarin was probably not from the government's stockpile, and that the rockets were not standard chemical rockets, this new observation makes perfect sense but does not change the picture significantly. In other words, even if this attack was somehow carried out by the regime, it used non-standard weaponry and should not have triggered the alarm.

The US evidence relating to personnel movements and military orders was cherry picked in hind sight.
This again makes perfect sense. There are probably millions of data points collected every day from Syria, which cannot be analyzed in real time. It's safe to assume that following the attack this data was analyzed in retrospect. The fact that despite this effort, the only evidence presented by the US was very weak and circumstantial, is a strong testimony to cherry-picking. Actually, the fact that nothing incriminating wasn't found in all these sources is strong probabilistic evidence that the regime was not involved. This is analyzed in detail here.

The 330 mm rocket (aka UMLACA) is an improvised munition, implying it is not related to the government.
Here Seymour is of course out of touch with the current research at Brown Moses and WhoGhouta, which clearly indicates that the rocket was developed for the Syrian Army, probably to fit its special needs in short-range urban warfare.
However, this in itself is a weak indication of government involvement, since most of the opposition's heavy weaponry has been looted from Army depots.

The rocket's range is less than 2 km, indicating the NY Times report claiming the attack came from an Army base 9 km away is incorrect.
This was already established here three months ago. However, he does say this range estimate was based on "a thorough study", so unless this refers to the WhoGhouta research, it gives yet more credibility to our range estimate.

US Intelligence estimates the opposition has the capability to acquire and use sarin.
This is in line with our analysis, and while no additional hard evidence is provided, his quotes from intelligence sources seem reliable.

Summary: While Hersh does not provide significant new evidence, his quotes from intelligence sources are in line with many of our findings, and his analysis provides much-needed counterweight to the many erroneous reports in the media.

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AKHIRNYA DATANG JUGA SAAT ITU

Saya kesepian. Sungguh kesepian. Kesepian karena teman tidur saya selama lebih dari dua tahun sekarang sudah mulai menjauh. Menjauhi saya dengan sukarela, tanpa setitik air matapun.

Duh, semoga gak salah mengira nih. Maksud saya kekei anak saya satu-satunya dan cinta pertama dan terakhir saya itu. Tiga hari ini dia oke-oke aja tuh bobo sama omanya, sedihnya lagi dia nggak pake nangis dulu kalo saya tinggal pulang. Malah semalam dia yang minta sendiri supaya saya pulang, bobo sama auntynya, dan dia mau bobonya sama oma. Hiks hiks.. sedihnya nggak ketulungan. Kalo terbangun malam atau sebelum subuh, pasti saya sempetin buat sekedar meluk cium bayi besar saya itu, sekarang yang ada Cuma dua bantal dan satu guling dan remote tv, hiks.

Namun, seharusnya memang sebelum umur Kei dua tahun saya udah harus memisahkan tidur saya dari dia sebenenya, secara kei kan masih mimik sama saya. Yang susahnya lagi, dulu itu dia hanya mau tidur sama saya. Titik. Gak perlu ada mainan ataupun susu botol, yang penting saya aja di sebelahnya.

Ternyata saat itu datang juga. Saat-saat dimana anak saya perlahan punya dunianya sendiri. Sekarang aja sepinya udah kaya begini, gimana nanti pas kei sudah mulai masuk SD apalagi masuk pra-ABG (labil), hehehe. Dia bakal lebih memilih untuk hang out dan ngobrol sama temen2nya, dia lebih pilih nonton tv daripada jalan2 sama saya, dia akan mulai ‘kesal’ sama saya kalo diomelin. Ah, memang fase seorang perempuan kaya begitu.  Saat kei menikah nanti dia pasti bakal jauh dari saya, ketakutan seorang ibu klimaksnya mungkin di titik tersebut.

Saya pun pernah di tahap itu, pernah membenci nyokap karena dilarang pergi malem, ngambek mengurung diri di kamar akibat diomelin, dan masih banyak blablabla lain. Jujur ya nih, seorang wanita akan lebih menghargai ibunya saat dia sendiri menjadi seorang ibu.  Dia pelan'' mengerti bahwa jadi ibu itu nggak gampang, saking sayangnya semua dikasih deh ke anak, tapi ada saat ibu harus berani ‘dibenci’ anak saat dia menetapkan aturan2 tertentu untuk anak perempuannya,  kadang seorang ibu harus menahan emosinya agar ngga nangis depan anak supaya terlihat kalo benteng pertahanannya masih kokoh. 

Saya bangga sama mama saya, dia bisa mengurus 3 anak tanpa suami, dan masih bertahan sampai detik ini. Mama saya bukan tipe cengeng yang menyerah pada keadaan dan menyesali masa lalu. Hidup harus dijalani, anak wajib diberi makan dan disekolahkan, Tuhan ngga memberi cobaan yang lebih berat dari kemampuan umatnya.

Doa Ayah dan Ibu untuk anak-anaknya adalah doa yang didengar, begitupun sebaliknya. Semoga Kei bisa menjadi anak sholeha yang nantinya dapat mendoakan orang-orang tercintanya saat kami sudah tak ada, amin.

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Kekuatan Cinta-Nya

“Kuatlah untuk kuat.

Jiwa yang kuat itu asalnya dari jiwa yang dekat.

Dekat getaran hatinya dengan yang Maha Dekat.”

Bismillahirrahmanirrahim…

Dengan menyebut nama agungMu Tuhan yang Maha Pemurah lagi Maha Penyayang…

Maaf. Sering sahaja laman ini terbiar. Tuan tanah ‘bertenang’ seketika.

Setiap kali tuan tanah melihat kebun, mahu sahaja menyemai. Tapi sayangnya, hilang benih.

Seperti itu jugalah diri pada sepurnama yang lalu.

Doif. Beruzlah sendirian.

Jiwa hilang keyakinan.

Yang tersisa saat itu, jiwa yang ragu. Sedih. Dan buntu.

Alhamdulillah, hari ini DIA masih sudi memberi lagi kekuatan.

Terima kasih Allah.

Terima kasih untuk semua rahmat dan kasih sayangMu.

Terima kasih untuk nafas ini.

Oksigen cinta.

Penuh cinta dari-Nya.

*Hamdan lillahi abadan*

Sesungguhnya jalan menuju Allah bukan suatu jalan yang mudah.

Meskipun, bibir berkali-kali mengungkapkan kalimah penyaksian, pengakuan dan petunjuk setiap hari di dalam solat yang bermaksud;

‘Tunjukkan kami jalan yang lurus, iaitu jalan orang-orang yang telah Engkau beri nikmat kepadanya, bukan jalan mereka yang dimurkai, dan bukan pula jalan mereka yang sesat’ (Al-Fatihah:6-7)

Tetapi, tetap terus kuatkah kita untuk terus berada di atas jalan lurusNya?

Teringat kalam seorang pensyarah saya.

“Kita bukan tidak mendapat hidayah. Hidayah itu sudah dibekalkan kepada kita sejak dari kecil. Dengan anugerah ‘Islam’ yang kita miliki itulah hidayah terbesar dari Allah.

Tetapi, kenapa kita masih sering tidak dapat melakukan kebaikan padahal sudah punyai hidayahNya? 

Kerana hidayah tidak akan lengkap tanpa taufik.

Taufik itu adalah ‘kekuatan’ untuk kita melakukan kebaikan. Ibarat satu butang ‘push’ yang menekan diri kita untuk bersegera menuju Tuhan.”

Subhanallah. Bersyukurlah selalu.

Kita sudah berada di atas jalan-Nya. Jalan yang mustaqim.

Namun, harus selalu meminta agar kita sentiasa ‘kuat’ dan thabat untuk terus kekal berada di atas jalan yang lurus itu.

Kuatlah untuk kuat.

Kerana hanya dengan cinta dan kasih sayang-Nya yang tidak putus-putus, kita masih diberi kekuatan untuk melakukan amal ibadah.

Bukan semata-mata kerana kekuatan diri kita.

Kerana kekuatan yang mutlak itu, Allah belaka yang punya.

Satu purnama yang berlalu ini, macam-macam hal yang tidak disangka terjadi.

Betapa banyak hal yang DIA uji.

Pada diri sendiri dan juga pada orang sekeliling yang disayangi.

Ya. Siapa yang akan pernah dapat menjangka pada setiap takdiran Ilahi?

Tidak akan mampu untuk diperhalusi namun harus benar kita mengimani.

Setiap perkara yang terjadi, pasti akan ada hikmah yang tersembunyi.

Tinggal sahaja, adakah kita ‘kuat’ untuk menghadapi setiap ujian yang diberi?

“Dan sungguh, kami benar-benar akan menguji kamu sehingga Kami mengetahui orang-orang yang benar-benar berjihad dan bersabar di antara kamu, dan akan Kami uji perihal kamu” (Muhammad:31)

*Serius. Mahu nangis saat mendengar musibah yang ditanggung oleh sahabat...

Allah. Maha CintaNya Engkau pada dirinya.!*

 

“Setiap perkara yang ALLAH kehendaki akan berlaku dan setiap perkara yang tidak dikehendaki tidak akan berlaku.

ALLAH mengetahui perkara yang telah lepas, sedang berlaku, akan datang, waktu dan cara ia berlaku.”

Pada setiap jiwa yang diuji.

Sungguh! Allah itu Maha Mengasihani.

Tidak dinafikan, kelemahan itu akan senantiasa menjadi milik kita.

Kerana selayaknya taraf kita sebagai hamba-Nya, penuh dengan kedoifan.

Namun, kekuatan itu sentiasa ada di sisi DIA.

Tinggal kita yang sungguh-sungguh mahu memohon atau tidak kekuatan itu daripada-Nya?

“Bila engkau merasa lemah, pintalah kekuatan dari Yang Maha Gagah.”

Mungkin benar orang cerdik pandai ada mengatakan;

“Jangan dipinta untuk lari dari ujian.

Kerana ujian itu sunatullah. Tetap akan hadir walau kita tidak menyukainya.

Namun, bila diuji pintalah sekeping hati yang cekal dan tabah untuk menghadapinya.”

 “Bagaimana ingin jadi kuat?”

Apa jua ibadah yang dapat mendekatkan diri dengan Allah, di situlah terselit kekuatan.

Dengan solat 5 waktu, zikrullah, doa. Tadabbur ayat-ayat cintaNya.

Syeikh Muhammad Al-Ghazali ada menyebutkan:

“Al-Qur’an inilah kitab yang membentuk jiwa, membangun umat dan kebudayaan mereka. Inilah sesungguhnya kekuatan Al-Qur’an.

Namun yang sangat disayangkan bahawa cahaya ini tidak nampak di depan umat Islam kerana mata-mata mereka sudah tertutup sehingga aib dalam konteks sekarang ini bukan aib Al-Qur’an, tetapi aib pandangan manusia yang lebih mengagungkan kekuatan lain selain Al-Qur’an.

Padahal Allah sudah berfirman,

“Hai Ahli Kitab, sesungguhnya telah datang kepadamu Rasul Kami, menjelaskan kepadamu banyak dari isi Al Kitab yang kamu sembunyikan, dan banyak (pula yang) dibiarkannya.

Sesungguhnya telah datang kepadamu cahaya dari Allah, dan Kitab yang menerangkan, dengan kitab itulah Allah menunjuki orang-orang yang mengikuti keredhaan-Nya ke jalan keselamatan, dan (dengan kitab itu pula) Allah mengeluarkan orang-orang itu dari gelap gulita kepada cahaya yang terang benderang dengan seizin-Nya, dan menunjuki mereka ke jalan yang lurus.” (Al-Ma’idah: 15-16)

Sesungguhnya, tiada daya kita untuk menghadapi setiap mehnah yang menguji iman melainkan Allah-lah yang sentiasa ‘membekalkan’ kita kekuatan itu.

Kerana itu, basahilah lidah dengan zikrullah selalu.

Abu Said Al-Khudri r.a berkata bahawa Rasulullah SAW bersabda,

“Perbanyakkanlah kalimah yang abadi dan baik.” Ada yang bertanya, “Apa kalimah itu wahai Rasulullah?” Rasulullah SAW bersabda, “Takbir, tahlil, tasbih, tahmid dan tidak ada daya kekuatan selain dari kekuatan dari Allah.” (HR Ibn Hibban, Ahmad dan Al-Hakim)

Percayalah. Kekuatan itu sentiasa ada.

Dengan usaha ‘kedekatan’ diri kita kepadaNya.

Dalam lapangnya hati kita menerima segala ujian Allah.

CintaNya sentiasa dekat dengan orang-orang yang tak jemu mencari kekuatan daripadaNya.

Kerana kekuatan itu harus sentiasa dicari, bukan ditunggu.

Saya akui, saya bukan orang yang kuat bila diuji.

Sentiasa bersendu di hujung sujud. Pada lewat waktu itu.

Rapuh dan lemah.

Namun, tidak pernah ingin berputus asa dengan rahmatNya yang Maha Luas.

“Ya Allah, sesungguhnya aku memohon petunjuk, ketakwaan,
diri yang terjaga dan kecukupan kepada-Mu.” (HR. Muslim, no. 6842)

Untuk akhirnya.

Mari sama-sama kita terus berdoa diberikan kekuatan cinta dari Maha Pencinta.

Agar semakin bertambah kekuatan dan keimanan kepada Yang Maha Esa.

Sekian. Wallahu'alam.

: hikmatul islam

: 12122013

: 0300pm

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FOUR PERSONALITIES OUT THERE

Assalamualaikum people.

I’d like to start off with talking about other random things I need to appreciate today : the four people I talked to; they were my new acquaintances. They’re not my friends nor are they my relatives. They are just four of God’s creations who happen to have given me thoughts about what life is like for them. 

It wasn’t anything much of a proper friend-to-friend conversation, but I am thankful that I was the one who started the talks.

I also feel proud of myself for being able to pass through what I went through and how I went through them this morning to noon. Everything felt so easy and I didn’t feel any burden on my shoulders.

The Most Knowing knows I have tried my best and done my best, and I now I only have to sit back and relax and leave it all to Him. All I can do is pray and wait.

Oops wait, I still have two more proposal documents to be translated. Yep I did. Four, and it’s like a month’s salary fee. Alhamdulillah. Remembering this, “He is not going to test us with something we can’t bear with” makes life feel so much friendlier. Thank you...

Let’s all stay calm and enjoy the start of the weekend tonight.. 

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THE SPICY TRAUMATIC INCIDENT

Assalamualaikum..

Yep i am still staring at my pc screen. Had some coffee a few minutes ago. And luckily, it is working now. Not much of a drowsy feeling or heavy eyelids.

Why? I got good news. Again!

I'll only need to be fully awake tonight as a preparation for something occurring soon.

Oh yeah, nearly forgot.

This evening at my mom's.. My aunt dropped by. So we were chilling out, I mean watching TV and pigging out. Then my mom came with a plate of friend tofus, and of course raw chilies on the side of the plate. 

So I was busy typing, Kei and my aunt were chit-chatting, and then we heard a "crack". Nobody responded. Then one, two, three seconds my daughter hurled to the other room looking for a glass of water.

It happens that she was curious about how chili would be like so she grabbed one without asking, and swallowed a small bite.

She drank and drank, then ate some rice to reduce the heat in her mouth.

She eventually cried.

Poor girl. 

After around ten minutes she was fine.

It was a good lesson. No more playing with chilies honey. Mama loves you.

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THANKS TO YOU ALL

Hi, evening everyone.

I dedicate this post as a reminder for myself to keep on standing tall, hahaha I am kinda exaggerating that part you know.

Got a message from a friend of mine about something, and that something made my day.

I know I am not alone, and I have been so blessed in very many aspects of my life as a human being.  The Almighty is working on something tremendously beautiful  for my baby and me, and I am sure about it.

To those who have shown me that miracles do happen and done great things especially for the past six months, yes you, you, and of course you, I thank you all.

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Response to New Brown Moses Theory

If this is your first time here, I recommend starting from the conclusion page.

In his latest blog post, Brown Moses has updated two key points in his analysis of the August 21st attack:

1. Following the recent UMLACA video, and after consulting with warhead expert Richard Lloyd, he estimates the UMLACA range at 2.5 km, which is consistent with our findings.
   Although Brown Moses has never officially claimed a longer range, his original analysis assumed a range of 6-8 km to army sites (more details here). 
2. He decided to replace his own trajectory analysis (pointing North) with those reported by the UN and Al Jazeera (West to North-West).

These updates are substantial in two aspects:

1. So far the WhoGhouta blog was the only source to claim the 2.5 km range. Having a warhead expert and the leading blogger on Syria issue a similar estimate lends much-needed credibility to this number.
2. This officially refutes the HRW "trajectory intersection" theory (also published in the NY Times), which was probably the main rationale for regime culpability in Western public opinion.

While those of us who know the details, have long ignored this theory, we should remember the mainstream understanding is still heavily based on this kind of discredited evidence. So whether or not Brown Moses' updates indicate opposition culpability (he argues they do not), it is important that HRW and the Times be aware of these developments, and be allowed to correct their reports. If anyone has relevant connections, feel free to use them and let us know their response. Ideally, this would be done by Brown Moses himself.

Just to clarify: Brown Moses has never supported this theory, and based his support of government culpability on his (much more reliable) analysis of the munitions used.

As to the analysis itself, I believe it suffers from two weak points:

Trajectories

Brown Moses decided to replace his own trajectory analysis with those reported by the UN and Al Jazeera, which are both highly unreliable:

1. UN Trajectory - Normally, a UN report would always be the preferable source of information when available, but in this case their error is so obvious and easy to verify that it can't be used. Any theory relying on the UN azimuth must explain why this analysis of impact site 1 is wrong. Such strong evidence cannot be simply ignored.
2. Al Jazeera trajectories - Unlike the UN, Al-Jazeera are not a reliable source for the Syrian conflict. They are owned by the government of Qatar and have shown strong pro-opposition bias. Since they don't provide any evidence on how the azimuths were calculated we cannot use their data.
   An example of their low standards is evident when they claim a 5-10 km range for the UMLACA - a number which they do not explain, we know to be wrong, and seems to have been arbitrarily chosen so it matches army positions.

We have three strong indications of a northern source for the Zamalka attack. There is currently no other reliable evidence to support a different trajectory.

Control of Qaboun

The impression from watching the Qaboun videos is clearly of an area that is not under firm government control. Movements in open areas are done by armored vehicles, with troops mostly operating under cover.

However, an UMLACA launch is a complex operation involving two trucks and multiple people operating in the open. In all UMLACA launches documented so far we see troops comfortably operating around the launcher unprotected. It just doesn't seem to be intended for front-line operation.

More analysis on the status of Qaboun on August 21st is ongoing and will be updated here.

Update: In the comments below Amund Hesbol analyzed news reports from Qaboun to build a map of the front line. It is still work in progress, but seems to indicate the positions suggest by Brown Moses are under rebel control.

Update 2: Charles Wood prepared a map of ranges from the launch location proposed by Brown Moses. It indicates that the farthest impact sites may be beyond UMLACA range. However, it should be noted that except for sites marked UN-1 and UN-2, these were reported to HRW by local activists and were not independently verified.

Update 3: Charles Wood went through numerous videos from this channel, and concluded the following.
"With absolute certainty all Government positions between Fares al Khouri in Jobar and 6th Tishreen South of Qabon were under sustained insurgent attack in the lead-up to August 21 and afterwards. By sustained attack, I include mortaring and sniping from positions overlooking the army base. e.g. sniping"

Last, the new theory doesn't explain why the government chose to use low quality sarin and a low-quality chemical weapon instead of the weapons they acquired and tested over the many years of their chemical program.

Conclusion: While Brown Moses' new theory addresses the UMLACA range problem, it raises other issues which make it an unlikely explanation of the August 21st attack.

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