MY CHILD'S MILESTONE

Assalamualaikum....

Morning dear blog readers. 

Time to hit reality and face the world this morning, :] 

Look what I found in my living room the other day.

kei and my books

Apparently, Kei was in the living room for a while for her-so-called-state of art while I was busy with random stuff in our bedroom. I called her name a few times, she only responded with "yes mommy, kei is here."

SO i thought she was just playing around in her aunty's bedroom.

My conclusion is that she managed to take most of my books of of the bookshelf and had an idea of piling them to look like a tower? perhaps. Kei oh kei, mommy even loves you more.

This one was taken before our dinner two nights ago. We got treated (again) by my brother. I think Kei has really set a father figure for herself now. And I am thankful for it. When she is fully grown, she'll be able to conclude everything by herself.

learning to swim from her uncle :p

The latter photo was taken a few hours before fever struck her again. My mistake.

Oh well, hopefully everyone's day is going to be splendid :) enjoy..

Tmelania

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RESEP SUPAYA KETOMBE HILANG SELAMANYA

Assalamualaikum...

Melek masih mata saya ini, padahal udah jam 1 lewat tengah malem. 

Ada insiden anak yang nggak mau tidur dan betah mainin botol minum barunya, jadi saya yang keteteran ga bisa balik mimpi indah, ahaay

Seminggu ini saya kehilangan banyak rambut nih, efek berkerudung banget ini mah. Awal''nya justru ngga ada pengaruhnya selain rasa panas kalo pakai ciput, manset, dan jilbab di saat bersamaan. Saya engeh kalo lagi baca'' soal di lappy atau lagi ngeblog, kok kepala rasanya gatel sekali, terus kulit kepala juga kering, rasanya harus digaruk, dan setiap kali saya garuk pasti dapet serpihan kulit kepala yang kering itu. Ini nih yang saya sebut ketombe. Karena si putih ini, efeknya pasti rambut rontok. Di rumah kadang sambil iseng menyisir rambut pakai tangan, bisa dapet sekitar 10-15 helai rambut. Itu belum mencakup saat habis keramas dan sisiran. Halah. 

Tanya boleh tanya, ipar saya pun sama, ternyata memang normal untuk para newbie dalam berkerudung :p

Saran mereka sih berkisar pada :  

1. Cuci rambut setiap hari. Kalo saran saya nih, mendingan malam hari sebelum tidur, jadi saat habis keramas kalo langsung jilbaban otomatis akan lembab, gatel, dan ketombean juga ujung''nya, plus bau. Namun kalau harus mencuci rambut pagi hari, usahakan rambut kita sudah bener'' kering sebelum dibalut dengan kerudung.

2. Ganti shampoo dengan yang mint anti ketombe. Sayangnya untuk ini, saya cuma percaya merk HnS yang model iklannya si cantik Asmirandah itu tuh. Jangan lupa pakai hair tonic-nya juga. Kalo saya mendingan ngga pakai conditioner dulu karena rentan menyebabkan minyak berlebih di kepala.

3. Pakai kerudung yang berbahan adem / sejuk, dan jika memungkinkan di pagi / siang hari, pakai warna cerah seperti putih, krem, atau warna'' pastel yang ga menyerap sinar matahari.

4. Ada juga yang menyarankan untuk menjemur kepala kita sehabis keramas (itu juga kalo keramasnya pagi hari). Soalnya panas matahari akan menekan perkembangan ketombe di kepala.

5. Jangan menggunakan ciput / inner kerudung yang sama lebih dari dua kali berturut-turut. Lebih baik dicuci dulu sebelum dipake lagi.

6. Kalo memang ketombe sudah datang dan betah di kepala, rajinlah merendam teh di malam hari untuk dipakai sebelum keramas besoknya.

7. Saya pribadi sebenernya dan seharusnya menghindari memakai manset, ciput, dan kerudung warna gelap di satu saat. Namun apa daya, kadang baju saya kurang panjang atau kerudung kurang menutupi. Tapi memang sebagai muslimah yang bener'', kita sebaiknya mulai pakai kerudung yang berbahan tidak transparan atau memakai baju yang memang berlengan panjang. Bukannya baju pendek lalu dimansetin, atau pake rok mini trus berlegging, berjilbab itu menutupi bukan membalut. Memang badan dan tubuh kita itu lontong dibalut segala. Semoga saya bisa menjadi lebih baik. Malahan saya kepingin mulai pake rok panjang, tapi karena saya pendek dan buntal, rada sudah cari yang pas di badan, hiks.

8. Jika tertarik dan ada waktu untuk mencoba perawatan menghilangkan ketombe yang diramu sendiri, boleh coba yang ini :

Cuka dan Air. Campur satu cangkir cuka dengan secangkir air. Habis keramas, oleskan pada kulit kepala, trus diemin sebentar. Lalu, bilas rambut dengan air. Coba ini hingga dua minggu atau lebih.

Lidah buaya. Dulu saya pake lidah buaya hampir setiap minggu, bukan untuk ketombe tapi biar rambut subur, lebat, dan cepet panjang, hehehe. lidah buaya juga bisa buat menghilangkan ketombe. Taro ekstrak lidah buaya pada bagian kepala yang sering berketombe, diamkan dan bersihkan setelah 15 menit. 

Garam. Taburkan dan gosok kulit kepala dengan garam. Bilaslah setelah beberapa saat dan bersihkan rambut dengan sampo.

Santan kelapa, jus nanas, jeruk nipis dan air kelapa. Campur santan dari 1/2 butir kelapa, satu gelas jus nanas (buah beneran, bukan beli yang udah jadi), perasan jeruk nipis, dan 11/2 gelas air kelapa. Aduk rata. Pake campuran ini untuk mencuci rambut tiap lima hari sekali. Bersihkan dengan sampo setiap kali melakukannya.

Masker Telur yang dibikin sendiri. Satu atau dua butir telur dikocok dan diusapkan ke kulit kepala, tunggu sampai kering dan terasa amis lengket. Selain itu, ramuan ini juga bisa bikin rambut lembut dan berkilau ting ting, hehehe.

Semoga berguna ya ngeblog gini malem'' :]

Tmelania

reade more... Résuméabuiyad

Location of Liwa Al Islam Videos

If this is your first time here, I recommend starting from the conclusion page.

Following the enhancement of the Liwa Al-Islam videos, I analyzed them to create a map of possible locations, based on the following:

1. An open field
2. Within UMLACA range of Jobar. The blue circles are 3 km and 4 km from Jobar center. 
3. Within UMLACA range of Qabun. The green circles are 3 km and 4 km from Qabun center. 

The 4 km circles (which are beyond UMLACA range) were used since the attacks are not necessarily near the town's center.

Note: These are the locations matching the claims made in the video. It may have been shot elsewhere.

The orange areas match all three criteria, with the areas within the two inner circles representing higher likelihood. The western area is less likely since it is the border between regime-controlled area and contested-area and would mean a rocket attack coming from behind the Syrian Army.

The red area is the estimated launch source that was independently calculated from rocket impact sites.

Conclusion: Assuming this is no coincidence, it seems that the videos were shot at the location of the real source of the attack, or were fabricated by people who know it.

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SELF NOTE TO MYSELF

Morning, assalamualaikum... 

Looks like it's going to be a beautiful day for most of us, due to the fact that it is Sunday already and we can all take more time snuggling in bed with our loved one(s); mine is still asleep, although she has been circling here and there for no specific reason :]

We took her for a short swim yesterday, because I thought her fever had gone away, but then after 6 PM, she started showing her terrible mood, and then I saw a little snot coming out from one of her nostrils, oh dear, she caught the flu, I said to myself. I felt sorry for letting her play in the water too long, my bad.

My brother and his family dropped by last night, and they also brought along with them a lot of Pempek (traditional Palembang dish) and Keripik Sanjay (Spicy Cassava Chips from West Sumatra), and we were also treated some bakso malang (meatball dish). It was absolutely a filling night, a tummy-filling night to make it clear :]

"I am thankful for all difficult people in my life; They have shown me who I do not want to be."

I have been doing intense talks to the all-Seeing and all-Knowing, normally after the mandatory formal prayers, and doing it has truly given me something more like self-awareness. I mean, all these years I have spent as an adult, I came to a realization only months ago that some things and some people in life are not meant to be in MY life. They deserve another spot somewhere else in this whole wide world. I am certain Allah is taking me somewhere beautiful in the end, with all the incidents that since the start of the process have always been so smooth and easy, so there must be something eventually.

Let's take it this way, you see it is POSITIVE when there is progression today compared to yesterday; but when it is the opposite, it is regression. It applies to not only material things, but more to self-spirituality, self-introspection, self-bettering-process. 

There is really something ahead for us :-*

Tmelania

reade more... Résuméabuiyad

Liwa Al Islam Videos - Improved Quality

If this is your first time here, I recommend starting from the conclusion page.

Anita Hunt has kindly prepared enhanced versions of the Liwa Al Islam videos (which were analyzed here and geolocated here). They show much more detail and could assist us in finding more clues as to the nature and reliability of these videos. Please share your findings.

Some interesting screenshots here.

Thank you Anita!

Transcript:

Man saying in a Syrian Accent: Wednesday 21^stof August 2013, operation "Reeh Sarsar" (this term was used in the Quran to describe the wind that was sent as a curse to the people of A'ad, who disobeyed god and refused to follow his messenger, and defied God's teachings) by "Liwa'a Al Islam" targeting the Assadi's regime forces in Al-Qabun. Allahu Akbar! (God is the greatest).

[Footsteps, behind the man there are black banners (flags) with the words "There is no God but Allah and Muhammad is the messenger of Allah". Below that the words "Liwa Al-Islam" in a smaller font]

[The rocket is launched with "Allahu Akbar". On their foreheads there  are black bands with the words "No God But Allah and Muhammad is the messenger of Allah" is written in white color]. 

Transcript:

Man saying in a Syrian Accent with a mix of original Arabic: Assad's Shabiha (a pro-regime militia) in the Qabun district, Wednesday 21^stAugust 2013 with an Ababil rocket (Ababil is a word from the Quran describing the birds that attacked the invaders of God's holy mosque in Makkah by rocks, and turned them into perforated dead bodies).

[He is asking people to Say "Allahu Akbar" by saying "Takbeer", and people are responding by "Allahu Akbar"].

[When the rocket is launched, he asks with excitement "Takbeer!", and people are responding with "Allahu Akbar!"].

Transcript:

Man saying in a Syrian accent with a mix of original Arabic: Assad dogs in Jobar area with two Ababil rockets on Wednesday 21^stof August 2013. Allahu Akbar! (God is the greatest) 

[Then he's asking other people to say Allahu Akbar by saying "Takbeer"!]

Man: Come on, let's go back Abu Muhammad. Go back.

[A rocket is launched with a man calling "Takbeer" again, and people responding with "Allahu Akbar"].

[Then another rocket is launched with the same scenario].

Appendix

Prior to October 7th, the videos in this page were based on lower quality originals. Here are the old links in case anyone needs them: 

http://youtu.be/vOgMdTdE52c

http://youtu.be/x-r3kNlromg

http://youtu.be/zNs4TSnLoTk

Thanks to Petri Krohn and Amund Hesbol for finding the higher quality originals.

reade more... Résuméabuiyad

What Happened in Moadamiyah?

If this is your first time here, I recommend starting from the conclusion page.

So far we've been very successful in collecting and analyzing evidence from the Zamalka attack, with every conclusion backed by multiple independent sources. But the Moadamiyah attack still remained with its highly inconsistent evidence. It's easy to dismiss it as just another one of the many slip-ups in the UN report and forget about it, but that's not how things are done here... So I went through all the Moadamiyah videos, reports, and UN findings and tried to settle all the discrepancies.

First, a summary of the problems with the Moadamiyah chemical attack report:

1. No UMLACAs were found there, compared to multiple findings in Zamalka. This is especially weird as Moadamiyah is within UMLACA range of Mazzeh airport, a site from which we have multiple sightings of UMLACA launches.
2. The only munition suspected to be associated with a chemical attack is an M14 rocket body. Its warhead was not found, even though chemical warheads should survive impact, and the UN reported that locals were bringing them various munitions.
   Update: some have claimed a strong boosting charge can destroy the warhead. In that case, serious damage should have been evident on the rocket body.
3. While images and videos of UMLACA impact sites were uploaded by activists within hours of the attack, the first (and only) M14 video was uploaded only after four days. Furthermore, it was recorded at an arbitrary location and not in its impact crater.
4. The M14 rocket body shows no signs of damage from impact with the ground, while all UMLACAs are bent or broken. Especially interesting since its terminal velocity is supposed to be higher due to its aerodynamic design and better fuel-to-weight ratio.
5. No other M14 rocket bodies or warheads were reported. This is especially interesting since the UN reported another impact site it believes originated from the same launcher.
6. The M14 has an optional 2.2 kg sarin warhead. To cause the amount of deaths reported in Moadamiyah would require between 13 and 66 M14 rockets (see full calculation by pmr9 in comments below). 
7. The M14 is an obsolete weapon, with the markings on this one indicating it was manufactured in 1967.
8. There are no videos or images of the Syrian Army (or anyone else in Syria) using an M14 or its launcher (if anyone has it, please share).
9. The UN team wore gas masks near Zamalka impact sites, but not in the Moadamiyah impact site - probably since their mobile chemical detectors beeped only in Zamalka.
10. While the UN report found sarin in 90% of samples taken around UMLACA impact sites in Zamalka, none of the samples in the vicinity of the rocket were positive for sarin, despite being taken 2-3 days before the UMLACA samples. A few of them tested positive for sarin breakdown products (DIMP, IPMPA, and MPA): 2 out of 15 tests in one lab, and 5 out of 15 in the second lab.
11. Still, 14 out of 15 blood samples taken from victims in Moadamiyah tested positive for sarin exposure, a higher rate than in Zamalka.
12. While in Zamalka we have videos showing the disarray in the streets, all Moadamiyah videos are taken in the hospital.
13. The UN report provides 8 indirect quotes from victims who report being infected in Zamalka (one on Page 16, seven on 36-38), but none for Moadamiyah.
14. While hundreds of eyewitness accounts can be found for Zamalka (see here, here, here and many more), I could only find two for Moadamiyah: One that is constantly interrupted by a local doctor and is cut off when the witness starts mentioning an "explosion", and another taken over skype by HRW (page 4) which describes no odors at the scene (highly inconsistent with Zamalka), and claims a shirt dunked in water protected him at ground zero (impossible).
15. Reports in social media from Moadamiyah were inconsistent, alternating between descriptions of chemical and conventional shelling. 13 hours after the attack seven casualties from chemicals were claimed, and only later did this change to 56.
16. When the UN team approached Moadamiyah, they were targeted by sniper fire. No such interruptions were reported in Zamalka.

So what happened here?


First, the positive samples from victims can be explained as Zamalka victims rushed to Moadamiyah hospitals. Since thousands of people were affected in Zamalka, the small local hospitals were quickly overrun and victims were distributed to any available opposition hospital. And indeed, when each hospital reported its casualties it created the initial impression that the attack spanned a wide area. 

So any visit to an opposition hospital near Damascus would have yielded positive samples. The only reason the investigators happened to visit Moadamiyah is because they only visited impact sites, and were informed of the intact M14 rocket body found there.

Shouldn't the UN team have picked up on this? Not necessarily:

1. Their Moadamiyah visit lasted for only two hours.
2. It was done in unfavorable conditions.
3. Their charter was to find whether a chemical weapon was used, not how. So they probably put less emphasis on this issue.
4. For some reason, the UN report chooses to ignore facts that weaken the regime attack theory.

Next, let's examine the M14 and its alleged impact site:

1. As mentioned, the M14 is obsolete and would make for a very weird choice when UMLACAs with a sarin capacity 25 times larger are available.
2. This video shows the rocket body one day before the UN arrival, in an obviously different location than when it was examined by the UN. The investigators still went on to analyze a "small crater/impact point" found near the rocket and treated it as if it was related. The discussions with the local activist in this video and this video from the same time give some idea as to the reliability of evidence collected from this scene. And indeed, the investigators did report that "Fragments and other possible evidence have clearly been handled/moved prior to the arrival of the investigation team".
   Update: It seems like the "small crater" that was reported to be found near the rocket is one of the two dents in the floor seen in this video. Describing this as a rocket impact crater is highly speculative, and the fact the the team used it to calculate trajectories is concerning.
3. Even if we were to assume this rocket did hit this location, the UN report states: "[We] determined that it initially impacted the corner of the second floor of an adjacent apartment building to the east, with either the warhead functioning or shearing off from the body at that point and the motor section having sufficient kinetic energy to continue along its path to its terminal impact location". This provides an excellent alternative explanation for the rocket body being intact (other than it having a chemical warhead): its conventional explosive warhead did not detonate or detonated at a distance.

Still, we need to explain why some of the samples tested positive for sarin-breakdown products. When examining these in detail (pages 24-25 and 27-29 together) an interesting pattern emerges:

1. The only sample positive in both labs is a soil sample from the impact point in the outside terrace (page 18).
2. Additional four samples found positive only in Lab 2 are from two metal fragments taken from the same terrace.
3. An additional sample found positive only in Lab 1 is from a scarf of a victim said to have died of poisoning. 
4. The rest of the samples, which were negative in both labs, are from inside the apartment (see video) taken from the floor, a bed sheet, a slipper, a pillow, and a mattress. Some of these samples tested positive for Hexamethylentetramine, a chemical related to RDX (a type of explosive). It should be noted that the alleged poisoning occurred inside this apartment.

So the only positive tests were the 5 taken in the terrace and the one from the scarf, while the only negative tests were the 9 taken inside the apartment. However, we already know that the terrace was previously visited by activists (those who took the M14 video), or as the UN puts it "The sites have been well traveled by other individuals both before and during the investigation". This means that if one of these activists has traveled to Zamalka (e.g. to assist the victims or investigate impact sites) before visiting this scene, the soles of his shoes would immediately contaminate the area (or may even have done so intentionally). More specifically, he would contaminate the floor (and not the bed) and would do so with sarin breakdown products and not with sarin (which disintegrates quickly when exposed).

The scarf sample is unique in that it is not described as a sample taken personally by the investigators (and is not shown in the video), which may indicate it was given to them by locals. Until more information is provided on how it was collected, it's hard to assess the source of its contamination.

This all seems to suggest the following scenario: Moadamiyah suffered a conventional attack (like much of Ghouta), and treated patients from Zamalka (like all Ghouta hospitals). Reports related to these incidents created the confusion that the area is attacked by chemical weapons (as initially happened in all towns treating Zamalka victims). When they later saw the international impact, some local activists decided to stick to the story.
This scenario is definitely plausible, and it perfectly matches all the evidence. In comparison, the scenario of a chemical attack in Moadamiyah implies many unrealistic assumptions.

Conclusion: It's still uncertain what exactly happened in Moadamiyah. However, the evidence for a chemical attack is weak and inconsistent, while the evidence for a conventional attack that was misrepresented to be chemical is much stronger. 

reade more... Résuméabuiyad

Reliability of Using Munitions to Determine Culpability

If this is your first time here, I recommend starting from the conclusion page.

After determining that the only reliable evidence associating the regime with the chemical attack is the munition analysis by Brown Moses, I will now examine the reliability of using this evidence to determine culpability.

In most conflicts there are significant differences in the munitions used by each side. This may be a result of different budgets, different international allies, different defense needs etc. Therefore, munition remains found at impact sites are a reliable indication of the source of that attack.

This however does not apply well to the Syrian civil war, since a significant part of the opposition arsenal is obtained from raids on Army bases and ammunition depots. This is especially true in the case of heavy weaponry, which is harder to acquire and smuggle from abroad.

Numerous examples of such raids and the loot may be found online, but here are a few examples:

1. November 2012 - Capture of Base 46, including artillery and rocket launchers.
2. December 2012 - Capture of SA-8 missile
3. January 2012 - Capture of airbase, including a rocket launcher, a shell with Cyrillic writing, a tank, an APC and a helicopter.
4. August 2013 - Capture of an anti-tank ammunition depot
5. August 2013 - Capture of airbase, including tanks and helicopters.

There are also endless videos documenting the use of captured heavy weaponry by opposition forces. I find this one showing a Liwa Al-Islam tank column especially nice. This report from Brown Moses shows a Syrian Army rocket launcher somewhat similar to the UMLACA (improvised rocket, oversized warhead, civilian truck) being used by Al-Nusra.

Conclusion: Determining culpability by using munition analysis alone is irrelevant in the Syrian civil war.


Did I miss anything? Please share your evidence and analysis and help me improve my conclusions.

Side note: Interesting to see the heavy use of flags on captured weaponry, which goes back to the discussion of flags in the Liwa Al-Islam videos.

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LATIHAN SOAL SAMPAI ANAK SAKIT

Assalamualaikum 

Kebetulan anakku lagi tidur, saya jadi sempet ngeblog sebentar nih. Dua hari ini, saya latihan soal CPNS melulu, mana kalo ketemu yang matematika, kepala saya mendadak berat hehee. Saya dari SD emang lemah banget sama yang namanya itung''an, terlebih kalo angka sudah bersatu padu sama huruf, makin kleyengan aja.

Kei demam naik turun tiga hari ini, siang tadi diukur padahal suhunya normal 37-an derajat, dua hari lalu paling tinggi 38,4 derajat, jadi saya nggak bawa dia ke dokter dulu. Kemarin masih saya kasih paracetamol, namun ngga hari ini, karena kei-pun nggak rewel, masih mau makan nyusu, plus minum jus jeruk. 

Pantas saja dari hari pertama keningnya panas, makan ogah, minum susu aja maunya.. Kayanya sih efek makan es krim kebanyakan kali yah :p

Beberapa kali dia mengigau beberapa malem lalu, terakhir igauaanya itu seperti ini : "Mama, ada guguk. Kekei digigit guugk. Ada papa iman."

Entah maksudmu apa nak..

Saat anak sakit, yang paling paranoid ya pasti orangtuanya, apalagi emaknya. Berhubung Kei anak yang kelamaan ng-ASI, alhamdulillah memang pengaruh ke daya tahan tubuhnya yang jarang sakit. Tapi giliran demam sedikit, sayanya yang justru bisa jadi berlebihan. Sore tadi saya mandiin jam 3-an, karna saya pikir, badannya nggak demam lagi, dan pake air dingin biasa juga, ngga air hangat. Semoga sih gak bermasalah. Saya ngga banget deh bawa anak ke dokter untuk demam doang, ntar ujung''nya dikasih antibiotik. Kasian amat anak saya, kan kebanyakan antibiotik ngga baik untuk tubuhnya.

Kalo anak kita panas, ada beberapa tanda yang mengharuskan kita langsung bawa dia ke dokter. Kei ngga mengalami salah satupun sinyal yang berikut, jadi mungkin nggak ke dokterlah ya.

1. Anak ngga nyaman. Rewel dan sering nangis sampe teriak''.

2. Resiko kejang, sesak nafas, 

3. Suhu melebihi 41 derajat celsius.

4. Demam setelah jatuh yang mengenai kepala (trauma kepala).

5. Untuk bayi dibawah 3 bulan, suhunya lebih dari 38,3 derajat C.

6. Kalo demam dan panas tinggi lebih dari 3 hari tapi ga ada batuk pileknya, jadi         penyebabnya ngga jelas.

7. Lemas, pipis berkurang, gelisah, muntah. 

Yang biasanya patut dicoba kalo anak demam :

1. Kompres dengan air hangat / air biasa. Jangan pakai air dingin, apalagi pakai kompres'' instan buatan jepang itu. Ntar malah sinyal tubuhnya korslet. 

2. Jangan kuatir, selama anak masih mau makan dan banyak minum, ya dirawat di rumah aja. Home therapy / treatment aja :)

3. Kasih paracetamol. Parcet ini lebih aman dibanding obat penurun demam lain, karena efek ke saluran pencernaannya lebih kecil.

4. Perbanyak minum susu, atau boleh diberi teh manis hangat supaya ada asupan energi bila makannya ngga banyak.

5. Untuk bayi, coba skin to skin contact. Tempelkan badan bayi yang cuma pakai pampers dengan badan ibu atau ayah, agar bonding keduanya makin lekat dan anak merasa nyaman.

Udah dulu blogging-nya, kei mulai ngigau lagi, dan lalu dia kembali tidur. Harus kembali sama yang paling penting :-)

tmelania

reade more... Résuméabuiyad

Evidence Contradicting a Regime Attack

If this is your first time here, I recommend starting from the conclusion page.

After examining the evidence presented so far to support the regime attack theory, I will now examine evidence contradicting it.

The Mint Press Story

This story, which received wide attention, contains excerpts from interviews with three rebel sources and claims the Ghouta poisoning was a result of an accidental explosion that released chemical agents brought from Saudi Arabia.

Even if we ignore the mini-scandal surrounding its publication, this report raises some serious doubts:

1. The quotes seem to indicate aggressive cherry picking, with very short excerpts followed by extensive commentary.
2. When read alone, the quotes only tell the story of unidentified munitions received from Saudi Arabia which were handled improperly and exploded.
3. The first quote implying chemical weapons mentions the weapons as containing: "a huge gas bottle". This is not indicative of a chemical weapon. Gas containers are specifically known to be used as regular explosive charges.
4. The second (and last) quote implying chemical weapons is “We didn’t know they were chemical weapons. We never imagined they were chemical weapons”. This is mentioned in a context that implies that the weapons were later revealed to be chemical, but when examined by itself there is no indication that this was indeed the original context.
5. The only location information given is 'Ghouta', which includes areas very far from the chemical attack in Zamalka.
6. Eyewitnesses consistently report multiple rockets hitting the area immediately before the poisoning, which does not match the single explosion story.

A likely explanation is that some explosives accident occurred some time before the chemical attack, possibly not even near Zamalka, and the reporter heavily edited interviews relating to the incident to seem indicative of a chemical weapons accident.

So until other evidence emerges it seems like this story does not provide any evidence contradicting a regime attack.

Liwa Al-Islam Videos

These videos published September 16th show militants shooting one shell from a Howitzer canon, and three UMLACA rockets. One UMLACA is clearly identifiable by its distinctive tail in one video, and it is launched from a truck-mounted launcher similar to that used in previous documented UMLACA launches. In another video the tails of the two other UMLACAs are hidden but when filmed from a distance just before launch they can be seen. Additionally, they are launched from the same vehicle as the first UMLACA, and are referred by the same name ('Ababil'). The UMLACA's distinctive oversized warhead is not seen in either video, since it is inside the launcher, which is the standard case seen in previous documented UMLACA launches (Credit: Petri Krohn and Anonymous for analyzing the videos)

The cameraman says they are Liwa Al-Islam fighters targeting Assad troops in Jobar and Qaboun. He gives the date of August 21st (the date of the attack) and calls the operation "Reeh Sarsar", a term used in another video in the context of rebel chemical threats. See significant screenshots here and here (credit: Anita Hunt and Petri Krohn).

Naturally, such an incriminating video is immediately suspected as Psychological Warfare, and indeed many issues regarding its reliability were pointed out. Let's examine them one by one:

1. Dark images on a full moon night
   Anaylsis: This is obviously a low quality camera, possibly a mobile phone. It would not be able to capture reflected moonlight.
2. Overemphasis of incriminating evidence such as Liwa Al-Islam mentions, Liwa Al-Islam flags, the UMLACA and the date.
   Analysis: This does indeed seem to be the case, although it could be a coincidence.
   Update: This video uploaded August 21st shows a similar pattern including a description of the operation (attack of Assad's hometown), many Liwa Al-Islam mentions, and Liwa Al-Islam flags. They obviously like pushing the flag in the videos (as proof of responsibility? to convince sponsors?). At 1:05 they actually have someone stand with a flag in front of a launcher... 
3. No Liwa Al-Islam logo on the video, as on most of their published videos
   Anaylsis: Irrelevant as this was reportedly downloaded from the cell phone of a dead militant.
4. Liwa Al-Islam don't hang flags on their weaponry
   Anaylsis: Generally true, although there seem to be exceptions, such as this video at time 2:12. As mentioned above, they seem to want to have their flags shown during operations, and this could have been the only way to do it in this setting.
5. No sign of the BM-14 launcher linked to the chemical attack
   Anaylsis: The M14 rocket is probably not related to any chemical attack. In any case this is not relevant as it could have been launched and not videoed, or launched by a different unit.
6. Uploaded by new YouTube and LiveLeak accounts, as was done for the previous video mentioning "Reeh Sarsar"
   Anaylsis: As with item 3, not relevant as this is not an official video.
   As a side note, I do not attribute much weight to the mention of "Reeh Sarsar". It is a term from the Quran describing wind sent by god to punish infidels, and is therefore likely to be used in many contexts.

Liwa Al-Islam also published a denial, which added the following points:

7. Only the regime has Howitzer artillery
   Anaylsis: Untrue
8. The Howitzer does not have chemical warheads
   Anaylsis: Irrelevant, as the chemical weapon is the UMLACA
9. Only the regime has chemical weapons
   Anaylsis: Unverifiable
10. Liwa Al-Islam had casualties in the attack
    Anaylsis: Interesting if true.
11. The flag has Liwa Al-Islam written in a strange way. Screenshot:
    
    Anaylsis: This is very interesting. I indeed could not find this flag ever being used by Liwa Al-Islam, but this led me to a more interesting find. The flag in the videos is actually Jabhat Al-Nusra's flag with the words "Jabhat Al-Nusra" replaced with "Liwa Al-Islam". I currently can't find any good explanation for this.
    Analysis: I initially thought this was indeed not the Liwa Al-Islam flag, but following a comment from CE below, I found several recent videos (also here and here) showing flags similar to the one in the video. None are identical to the one above, but the high variability indicates there is nothing "strange" about it specifically. I assume further research will eventually find an identical flag - feel free to help.
    A few screenshots:

These flags (above) don't have a good screenshot.
They are better seen in the video at 3:55.

In a later post, Brown Moses added further suspicions:

12. A journalist with connections with Kurdish groups could not find any confirmation of the story that these videos were found by Kurdish fighters.
    Analysis: Definitely interesting, but hard to evaluate without knowing the journalist's connections. In any case, it is very possible that the story behind the finding of the video is incorrect. If it is not fabricated, then it was most likely forwarded between close acquaintances as a "you won't believe what I just got" story, and there is no knowing how it leaked.
13. Everyone but the cameraman was wearing a gas mask.
    Analysis: While not seen in the video, the audio does seem to indicate so. Indeed suspicious, but a reasonable scenario can be imagined: There's probably no real exposure risk as the rockets were sealed beforehand, and it's just standard procedure to wear masks for precaution. The cameraman took his mask off in order to narrate the video and keeps it close by. He might also be a commander showing off ("you wear your masks, but i'm not afraid").
14. People were wearing gas masks, but also short sleeves that exposed their skin, which would readily absorb any sarin in the air.
    Analysis: Sarin requires much higher concentrations to cause damage through contact with skin. Protection by gas masks alone is standard.
15. Why would they do an operation under the cover of darkness, only to light up the launcher with a big spotlight that would make it stand out for miles around?
    Analysis: Nothing in the video indicates this is done under cover of darkness. It just happens to be a night operation since the regime chose to attack at night. They could well be within rebel held territory, not attempting to hide. In any case, it is near impossible to hide while launching rockets..
16. In the Storyful newsroom Brown Moses also pointed to the fact that the videos were published on the same day as the UN report.
    Analysis: I don't think this is a strong enough coincidence to be considered. The fact that the videos were published long after the risk of military intervention subsided is a much stronger indication of their authenticity.

Besides these, a few more problems are evident:

16. The attacks in the videos target Qaboun and Jobar, while the chemical attack was in Zamalka. Specifically, one UMLACA launch is said to be targeting Qaboun, which was never considered part of the area affected by the chemical attack (even when it was mistakenly thought to cover most of East Ghouta).
17. The attacks in the videos target regime forces, while the August 21st attacks seem like a deliberate attack on residential areas behind front lines.

So what are these videos? It's still hard to tell, but here are a few options to consider:

1. A real video showing the chemical attack on Zamalka
   Analysis: Unlikely. (a) The target locations are incorrect, (b) Why would people in the process of carrying a complex large-scale chemical warfare operation be bothered with shooting a Howitzer?
2. A real video from the day of the attack, just not the one on Zamalka (and possibly not even chemical)
   Analysis: Very possible. This seems like the only explanation that fits the evidence well (in the case of a non-chemical attack, the gas masks may be explained as protection from regime attacks). It also fits surprisingly well to the estimated launch source, with Qaboun and Jobar covered well by a 2.5 km range. Evidence of UMLACAs falling in Jobar and Qaboun would be of great help. Anyone?
3. Fabrication by RegimeAnalysis: Possible, although it would make for a very weird fabrication job: (a) Why publish this when a diplomatic solution is being negotiated and not earlier when military intervention seemed imminent? (b) Why show the Howitzer which no one connected to a chemical attack before, yet not show an M14 launcher? (c) Why describe an attack on the wrong targets when the regime's official story was a rebel false flag? (d) Why use such low quality video making it unusable for mass media? (e) Why put so much emphasis on Liwa Al Islam being responsible, but not give clear indications that this is a chemical attack (e.g. mention sarin like in this video)?
4. Fabrication by a competing rebel faction to implicate Liwa Al-Islam Analysis: Possible. While this fits the evidence well (low quality work, access to weaponry), the motivation is problematic: If the videos had succeeded in convincing the world, it would save the regime from an international attack. This seems to far outweigh the benefits of smearing another faction.

So while these videos could prove to be helpful, they require more analysis and evidence before they can be used to determine the source of the attack.

The ISTEAMS / Mother Agnes Report

This report mostly analyzes videos from the event and attempts to show they were staged. As it doesn't seem anyone takes this claim seriously, I will not perform a full analysis of the report, and just give my general impression:

The writers go through great efforts to point out any detail in the videos that may somehow be interpreted as abnormal, despite many other reasonable explanations. All the evidence may easily be explained as the behavior of thousands of people in panic and pain.

It additionally claims that the victims of the attack were Latakia residents taken hostage by Al-Nusra. This claim can be easily refuted: Survivors of the attack don't claim to be from Latakia, and there is no way the attack was able to just kill the hostages while leaving so many others alive and with sarin symptoms.

The Quirico-Piccinin Story

Hostages held in captivity by rebels reported hearing a skype call in which their captors said the chemical attack was a rebel provocation and death toll reports were exaggerated.
As with the US's 'senior official' call, and Germany's Hezballa-Iran call, it is difficult to assess the weight of this evidence without access to a recording or transcript. Specifically, speakers speculating about the source of the attack may easily be misunderstood as displaying actual knowledge.

From a probabilistic perspective: If the chemical attack was a provocation, you would expect it to be highly confidential and known to very few people. On the other hand, everyone in Syria and their mother would be discussing who is behind it, and rumors would travel all over the place. The probability that the hostages happened to hear an English skype call of the first kind and not just misinterpret the second kind is very low. When considering that the witnesses are not native English speakers and one of them specifically expressed such doubts, it is clear this evidence has no value.

Nevertheless, it is very interesting to note that senior opposition officers consider a false-flag as the likely explanation, and don't trust the death toll number.

Update: In the comments below several contributors have shown that Piccinin has strong English comprehension, and that in later interviews he described the conversation in a manner that suggests it was not misinterpreted.
However, since Quirico does not seem to agree, and we should be extra careful with evidence coming from a single source that may be interested in a certain outcome (e.g. the Al-Saket story), I will take the cautious route and keep this evidence out of the final analysis.

Jobar Chemicals

According to this report, upon entering Jobar a few days after the chemical attacks, the Syrian Army found materials and a laboratory for chemical weapons (Video1, Video2).

In a close examination of the videos the only relevant items I could see are the gas masks, atropine injectors and Caustic Soda (Lye) bags from Saudi Arabia. The first two could be explained as protection against external attacks and Lye has too many applications to be associated with anything specific. So unless anyone sees anything else interesting there, this does not seem to be of value.


My conclusions at this point:

1. The Mint Press, ISTEAMS, Quirico-Piccinin and Jobar Chemicals reports are of no value.
2. The Liwa Al-Islam videos cannot be easily dismissed as fabrication, and if so would be of immense value, but further analysis is still required.

In the next posts I will work on compiling all the evidence into a final conclusion.

Did I miss anything? Please share your evidence and analysis and help me improve my conclusions.

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Summary of Anomalies in the UN Report

If this is your first time here, I recommend starting from the conclusion page.

The UN report has been the main source of evidence in this research. Over time I found in it multiple flaws and misrepresentations, which I list here together, for convenience.

Wrong Trajectory Calculations

The trajectory analysis from the Zamalka impact site was found to be inaccurate by over 50 degrees.
The trajectory analysis from the alleged Moadamiyah impact site was found to be based on faulty evidence, including a rocket brought from another site, dents that are likely not related to any rocket impact, and unsubstantiated speculation that the the rocket hit an adjacent building without it interfering with its trajectory.

These trajectories were later used in the famous “azimuth intersection” calculation to claim the source of the attack was the Syrian Republican Guard base.

Implying Stabilizers were Found

Data about Impurities and stabilizers was the most important information the world was waiting to get from the team. Yet the report chose to hide these in the appendix, and refer to it in the misleading sentence: "In addition, other relevant chemicals, such as stabilizers are indicated and discussed in Appendix 7”, which was indeed quickly misinterpreted in the press to mean stabilizers were found.

Instead of clearly stating that the sarin contained numerous impurities and no stabilizers, they allowed the media to misinform the public.

Implying High Grade Sarin

It was reported that in a private briefing "Mr Sellstrom confirmed that the quality of the sarin was superior both to that used in the Tokyo subway but also to that used by Iraq during the Iraq-Iran war".

This is a highly misleading statement, exploiting the public’s lack of knowledge of Iraq’s low quality chemical program. Iraq’s sarin purity was discovered to be low and it deteriorated quickly in storage, reaching quality levels as low as the sarin used in Tokyo. The statement also ignores the fact that Syria’s chemical program is consideredfar more advanced than Iraq’s (e.g. having operational binary warheads). 

Naturally, this statement was also quickly misinterpreted to mean the sarin was typical of a military source.

Understating Sarin Impurities 

While all sarin degradation products were described as such in a footnote, the many impurities found by the labs were grouped under “Other interesting chemicals” without further explanation

Omitting Information Crucial for Associating the Rockets with a Chemical Attack

All samples were taken from the immediate vicinity of impact rocket sites. In order to rule out other sources for the sarin contamination, samples should have been taken at locations within the attacked area that are not near any impact site. This was not done. 
Just to avoid misinterpretation: Despite this, there is still evidence associating the rockets found in Zamalka with the attack (unlike the M14).

While results are reported for multiple samples from the rocket bodies found in Zamalka, none of the six wipe samples taken at the site of the M14 rocket body were from the actual rocket. No reason was given for this omission. Since it now seems that the M14 is not related to any chemical attack, this omission is especially concerning.

In page 23, an "Impact Site Number 2" is first mentioned. While other sites were photographed and sampled, this was not. An azimuth was given for it (pointing at the same base), but without explaining how it was calculated. There was also no mention of a rocket body at that location. Based on the omission pattern seen so far, it is probably a safe bet that this site contained evidence of a conventional attack.

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